250.000 is a quarter million.
And the death rate is 4% of those infected in the US at this point. Currently about 3% of Americans have been infected — and for herd immunity to become a reality (if it’s even possible given this virus’ ability to evolve rapidly) the number of infections {and successful vaccinations, see note below) needs to be 25 times higher.
The number of deaths per infection could very well (even likely) increase going forward because, as we see hospitals around the country begin to be overwhelmed by new hospitalizations that tip their capacity limits. This will exacerbate already rising healthcare worker burnouts and illness, and treatment for the most covid-vulnerable will become more and more of a scarcity as death becomes more and more ubiquitous.
Covid’s long, dark winter has already arrived in the Upper Midwest, as cases and deaths surge, snatching lives, overwhelming hospitals, exhausting health-care providers and raising fears that the region’s medical system will be completely overwhelmed in the coming days.
Go ahead, read that whole WaPo article (there’s free access for coronavirus news there) and see what GOP “leadership” has given us. And by “us,” I mean all of America. Here’s a money quote from a ND hospital administrator in that piece:
“We had months to prepare for this, we saw it happen in other states that were hit earlier. Why weren’t we prepared for what was coming?” said Sarah Newton, chief medical officer of the hospital in tiny Linton, N.D., population 997.
The answer to your question, Ms Newton, is
“Donald Trump and his GOP enablers actively worked to bring us to this catastrophic point while, at the same point, lying to us about its inevitability should we believe him.”
This “upper midwest” catastrophe, indeed, is the most likely near-term scenario nation-wide, given the vast extent of right wing disdain for control measures, and the virus’ current exponential trajectory; no vaccine or even multiple vaccine choices, even if they all become successful and plentiful via the most optimistic projections, will be available to the vast majority of Americans by the time our nation’s healthcare system is decimated.
So as the caseload continues to skyrocket, the rate of deaths per infection will go through the roof as well, both probably still surging through the middle of winter. I’m thinking that there will be another 10 to 15 million cases by then and the number of Covid-related deaths in the US will be well over a million before the one year anniversary of the first confirmed case appeared here at the end of last January.
At any rate, in my opinion a quarter million deaths in the last 9.5 months is worthy of note, even if it will eventually look paltry as the plague overtakes us in the coming weeks.
Nobody can top that, right? America First!